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2024-12-14 12:38:06

After the publication of CPI in the United States, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 97.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 71.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27.1%.OPEC Monthly Report: The recent steady economic growth trend is still continuing. The OPEC Monthly Report points out that in recent months, the steady economic growth trend is still continuing, especially in the United States, Brazil and Russia. In addition, China's stimulus measures and India's sustained growth momentum have contributed to supporting global economic growth. With these developments, the global economic growth in 2024 is expected to be 3.1%. The strong economic growth momentum is expected to continue until 2025 and is expected to reach 3.0%. However, the healthy growth observed in the United States during 2024 is expected to slow down slightly in 2025. However, the current growth forecast may be affected by the potential new policy measures being discussed by the incoming US government, such as trade tariffs, which will also affect the growth of US trading partner economies. In the euro zone, the recovery will continue gradually in the third quarter of 2024, but the improvement in the fourth quarter and 2025 is expected to be limited. Japan is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024 and continue until 2025, after a challenging period.Apple introduced Siri with ChatGPT, and on Wednesday, Apple released software updates for iPhone, iPad and Mac, including Siri with ChatGPT. This is also a major victory for OpenAI, because it shows its most important products to millions of iPhone users.


Hershey's share price fell 5.2% before the market.The actual average weekly salary in November in the United States increased by 1% year-on-year. According to the data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the actual average weekly salary in November increased by 0.3% month-on-month. The actual average hourly wage in November was flat, and the actual average hourly wage in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year. The actual average weekly salary increased by $3.71, reaching $385.99.Broadcom shares rose 2.8% before the market closed.


MetLife and General Atlantic are planning to form a reinsurance joint venture. It is reported that MetLife and General Atlantic are forming a reinsurance joint venture, which is the latest trend that insurance companies and alternative fund management companies jointly improve the return on low-risk insurance assets. Chariot Reinsurance, the joint venture, will have an initial equity of more than $1 billion, with MetLife and General Atlantic Insurance each holding about 15%. In addition, the insurance company Chubb will also become one of the major investors in the joint venture. The joint venture will be established in the first half of 2025, led by Cynthia Smith, who recently served as the head of the regional welfare business of Metropolitan Insurance Group.US official: Russia may launch another experimental Oreshnik missile into Ukraine in the next few days. It is expected that Russia's Oreshnik missile is not a game changer on the battlefield, but an attempt to intimidate Ukraine.Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center completed the first delivery of the pre-sale and listing of diesel oil in East China, and Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center completed the first delivery of diesel oil in the first half of December for the pre-sale and listing of diesel oil in East China on December 10th. The seller who completed the first delivery is Zhejiang Zhoushan Weide Energy Co., Ltd., and the buyer is Zhoushan Weilan Energy Co., Ltd., with an average delivery price of 5974 yuan/ton, and the corresponding value-added tax price is 6750.62 yuan/ton. In November, the buyers and sellers locked in the purchase (sales) volume and price in the first half of December in the pre-sale listing transaction, and determined Sinochem Nantong Warehouse as the delivery place, and completed the first delivery in two installments on December 9 and 10 respectively.

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